Read my previous post before perusing this one.

Ted Kennedy's ill health has prompted Vanity Fair to consider the matter of his succession, both political and in terms of the Kennedy patriarchy. Several articles have been written, conjecturing about who takes up the mantle, but VF has gone one better, folding the Kennedy personalities into the mix.

The commotion grew louder as more Kennedy-family retainers squeezed into the already overcrowded hospital suite to pay their respects to the ailing senator. “The elephant in the room was the notion of succession,” recalled one. “The question was: Who was in line to take over for Ted, not just, or necessarily, in his Senate seat but as head of the family? There were a lot of very strong characters in that hospital suite, and they are all fiercely competitive. Vicki is seen by all as an interloper, and she is deeply resented by Ted’s children and many of the nephews. Joe, who sees himself as the only serious heir apparent, particularly loathes her control over his uncle and hence the family. Joe inherited his father’s ruthless gene. He is nothing if not aggressive. And anybody who tries to get between him and Ted’s Senate chair is in for a fight.

“In addition, Joe has long resented Caroline, whom he views as haughty. Caroline is far and away the richest member of the clan. After all, she inherited money from her grandfather, her father, her mother, and her brother. Her fortune is a source of unbridled envy and a favorite subject of teasing by Joe and his brothers—a mild annoyance that Caroline sloughs off with an arch half-smile.

“But against the backdrop of Ted’s sudden deterioration, Caroline’s cousins are suddenly looking at her askance, apparently wondering if she is considering declaring herself the heir to Ted’s throne. And Joe is suspicious and envious of the way Ted fawns over Caroline. He doubtless worries about how much influence she has over him. The strangest thing was how Caroline, Joe, and Vicki avoided making eye contact with one another, as though the flying daggers would wound. There is no doubt that what Joe fears most is Ted surviving but being physically and mentally incapacitated. That would let Vicki rule in his name for God knows how long.”

Sounds like an episode of Dallas or Dynasty.

The reality is that with the death of Edward' Kennedy, the family's political dynasty is, if not at an end, at least greatly diminished and unlikely to rise to the kind of prominence its enjoyed over the past 50 years.

The children of the Kennedy brothers have profited from their relationship, but not added to the luster of the Kennedy name. Kathleen Townsend Kennedy is done, Joe Kennedy Jr. is fooling himself about his political prospects, even if he manages to succeed his uncle. We all of course now know that Caroline Kennedy doesn't have the chops for political office, even if she had the will.

“Rose pleaded, saying, ‘Mom, you are above this.’ That was a wake-up call. It jerked Caroline back to reality. What would her mother [Jackie] think of all this tabloid attention she was getting? Her mother wouldn’t have liked it. It was Caroline’s conversation with her children that tipped the balance. If Paterson had called and offered her the job an hour earlier, she would have accepted. But after that conversation she wouldn’t have taken the job if Paterson had come begging on his hands and knees. That’s when Caroline called Paterson and told him she was withdrawing her name.”

Too normal to play in the psychopath league--good for her.

The Kennedy's accepted the unlikely leadership of Ted Kennedy because he was literally the well-spring of their political possibilities. Obviously had John or Robert survived, he would have always lived in their shadow. With Ted gone, he no longer casts the shadow of Camelot, and the Kennedy's effectively become only one of the several minor political dynasties that survive to promulgate themselves in moderately successful fashion in the House, Senate and various State Assemblies (I'm thinking of the Udalls, who are one of the more successful family dynasties...).

The problem the Kennedy's have is two-fold--dwindling fortunes and dwindling anti-social tendancies. The family maniacs have either been imprisoned or offed themselves in high-risk activities, leaving their more sedate siblings unequipped to play in the big game.

Don't be too relieved though--there is always a new maniac running for office somewhere...

There are quite a few political dynasties here in the U.S.

The Udalls--descendents of David King Udall, a Mormon convert from England, have a political pedigree that spans more than a century and includes four generations. There are two Udalls currently serving in the U.S. Senate.

The Bush family is perhaps the best know and some would say, the most successful, have elected two Presidents, a Vice-President, a Congressman, two Governors and a Senator over the course of three generations.

Interestingly, those demonstrably successful dynasties have taken a back-seat to the Kennedys, who have have a far shorter pedigree, and appear to be diminishing in influence and vitality with the succeeding generation.

Caroline Kennedy embarrassed herself in her quest for Hillary Clinton's vacated Senate seat, and is unlikely to inject herself into the political process again. Its too early to tell whether her young children will pursue political careers, but it seems unlikely since there is no direct parental example to inspire such a course of action.

Only two of Robert Kennedy's kids went into politics--Kathleen Townsend Kennedy, who was Lieutenant-Governor of Maryland briefly, but has been generally unsuccessful at winning elective office. She has four daughters, who are in their early adulthood. None are known to have pursued law degrees--generally the first step towards a career in Democrat politics.

Joseph Kennedy is is 57 years old and a former Congressman (D-MA). His failure to win his Uncle's Senate seat strongly suggest that his political career has stalled. Joseph has no children.

Patrick Kennedy is Ted Kennedy's son, and a Congressman (D-RI). He's had issues with substance abuse most of his life, a fact highlighted by his recent non-arrest for drunk driving near Capitol Hill. His political future is, shall we say, dim. He never married and has no children.

With Ted gone, the Kennedys appear to be disappearing into the genteel districts of old money and celebrated ancestors--to be trotted out at memorials and political fund-raisers.

The big story this morning is that Patrick Kennedy is not running for reelection, giving us the prospect of a Kennedy-free Congress for this first time in most American's lives.

He can't claim to want to spend more time with the family, since he has none, so the narrative is that the death of his father affected him profoundly.

Of that I have no doubt.

Powerful, successful fathers have two kinds of sons--the ones who are just like them, and the ones who aren't. The ones who aren't have a choice before them--try to emulate the old man, or strike out on one's own. The first kind generally lead miserable lives--working in careers they are ill-suited to by preference, temperament or skills. Their lack of success and dependence on their father's influence and intervention is emasculating. Its fairly common to see substance abuse, relationship problems supplemented by other risky behaviors--anything to dull the pain of eunchdom or offer some sense of manliness.

I am virtually certain that his resignation isn't a case of Patrick Kennedy taking control of his life--getting out from underneath his father's shadow.

A WPRI-12 poll out just last month showed Kennedy with a staggering 56 percent unfavorable rating in his own district, swelling to 62 percent statewide. Moreover, just 35 percent in his district would vote for him again.

The bottom-line is that Kennedy was toast, and he was undoubtedly offered an escape hatch into a Democrat-controlled sinecure if he would simply step down, and allow another Democrat to retain the seat for the party.

Its a chance for a second act, and I wish the man well, but it will require him to demonstrate a strength of character he hasn't yet displayed.

[A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post analyzing the future of the Kennedy political dynasty--seems rather prophetic at this point.]