The Ames straw poll results appear to have confirmed the general suspicion that the current slate of candidates constitute a 'weak field', but I think we are seeing something else here--a Republican party tired of the usual hacks and waiting for Ronald Reagan to magically appear on the horizon.
This week, Ronald came in the guise of Rick Perry, who frankly reminds me of a less genteel version of George W. Bush. Perry quickly jumped into a substantial lead, much the same way Donald Trump did with his abortive pass at the nomination.
Just as quickly, pundits from every political persuasion have been piling on, seeing not the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan, but of Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Politically, there is a huge difference between Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachmann, Ron Paul and Rick Parry (or other rumored late entries like Paul Ryan and Chris Christie). The former have built a core of support over a long period of time. Romney and Paul have been campaigning since 2006-2007. Bachmann, while not a candidate in the 2008 election, has been prominently courting the Evangelical Christian and Tea Party vote and remains popular with both groups.
Perhaps Reagan II will appear on the horizon, but until then, it seems that a long slog is the best way to have a serious chance at the nomination. I found the Rasmussen poll interest in that Romney and Bachmann appear to have a core of support that just doesn't abandon them every time a new pompadour pops up on a press conference somewhere.
Every other candidate is taking a flyer, with the possible exception of Huntsman, who probably had hopes of building a good enough campaign to continue his pursuit of the Presidency into a future election. He has some time, but frankly from his recent performances, I don't hold out much hope that he'll inspire the folks to rally to his side.
The irony here is that Reagan himself wasn't 'Reagan on the horizon'. Reagan swallowed a bitter loss to Gerald Ford and then saw his campaign floundering in the early stages. Bush Sr. kicked his butt in Iowa, and while winning big in New Hampshire, he lost half of his staff in the immediate aftermath.
It seems likely that we'll see a number of shooting stars come and go between now and the Iowa caucuses and ultimately we will get our new Reagan.
A slogger, patiently building support over time.



Comments (1)
And that just might be Palin. She's thoroughly vetted, so that'll be out of the way. I'm just not enthused about anyone else at this point.
Posted by AC Chickadee | August 17, 2011 10:42 AM
Posted on August 17, 2011 10:42