Gingrich falls off a cliff.

Just 38% of Republican voters now have a favorable opinion of him with 45% having an unfavorable one.

This isn't a case of a politician inadvisedly telling the truth, but one of being too clever by half. Gingrich's comment was certainly calculated to create some distance for himself and the Republican establishment, and apparently he succeeded brilliantly.

Sarah Palin On the Verge

The national media are pointing to the purchase of a house in Arizona by the Palin family as a sign that she is running, but I suspect this has more to do with the media's need to inject some drama into what is looking like snoozefest. With Huckabee out, no other candidate aside from the aforementioned Gingrich has national name recognition, and that doesn't make for a very good show. Who, but the most egregious political wonk would want to see a debate between Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman Jr.?

Similarly, Chris Christie is being watched very closely for any sign that he might change his mind about running.

I'd be shocked if Palin actually did decide to run for two reasons. The first is that for her personally, she has to win outright because a loss doesn't even get her any lovely parting gifts. She already has the handsome income, the national name recognition and a commentator slot on Fox News. The second, related to the first, is that a President's reelection campaign is always a referendum on presidential performance, and the way it looks now, that's not going to be a fun campaign for Mr. Obama. Palin's signal advantage--her name recognition and reputation, actually work against her and for Obama in this cycle, since if he can make her the issue, he has a better than average shot at winning. Palin is much better off in an election year where her conservative bona fides, personal charisma and high name recognition work in her favor, and since she will only get one shot at this, that would seem to lie in the future.

The Lincoln Strategy

Abraham Lincoln won the Republican nomination and subsequently the Presidency by being everyone's second choice. Republicans who pine for another Reagan need to be reminded that Reagan won not because he was a conservative, but in spite of it. The Carter campaign worked tirelessly to make him look like a dangerous extremist, but Reagan's sunny disposition and clear articulation of his policies simply upended the Carter strategy. In the end, Reagan won because he successfully presented himself as acceptable (i.e. 'not crazy').

Ironically, Barack Obama is praying that he can play the second choice role. He needs to be able to say, "things are bad, but they'll be even worse if your pick THAT guy..." He would love for Republicans to pick some rock-ribbed conservative, promising to get rid of all entitlements, deport all illegal aliens and go to war with China.

That does not look like it's going to happen. As Karl Rove mentioned yesterday, Palin has done none of the things that are necessary to mount a national campaign, which in his words, means she's either not running, or she doesn't believe that the rules apply to her.

The second choice strategy appears to be the favorite in the Republican primary as well, with both Pawlenty and Huntsman positioning themselves as viable second choices if Romney implodes at some point.

This is clearly not going to be an ideal field for your red-meat conservatives, but it should prove to be a field well-positioned to challenge the President and win the White House. Three former governors, a former House Speaker and a Congresswoman. Two with significant business experience, one with significant foreign policy experience.

With the exception of Newt Gingrich, all have been married to the same women for decades without even a whiff of a bimbo eruption.

Most notably, all have controversial religious affiliations and histories with the exception of Michelle Bachmann, whose Evangelical bona fides are top notch. It's rather amusing to consider that among the top tier candidates, only Mitt Romney could be said not to be a flip-flopper.

Jon Huntsman Jr. is a dynastic Mormon, but refuses to say whether he shares in the faith of his fathers. Tim Pawlenty was raised Catholic, but attends an interdenominational church with his Evangelical wife, Mary. Newt Gingrich was unchurched until he joined the Southern Baptists after graduate school and then later converted to Catholicism.

My predication is that unless Congresswomen Bachmann does much better than expected, religion just isn't going to be much of an issue this election cycle.