Both national and Wisconsin-based Republican operatives tell the Huffington Post the party is being dramatically outworked and out-organized by Democrats in the recall campaigns being launched against state Senators.The operatives, who raised their concerns out of hope it would jar the GOP into assertiveness, argue complacency has taken over after Governor Scott Walker successfully shepherded his anti-collective bargaining bill into law. While the Wisconsin Democratic Party, with major assists from progressive groups and unions, has harnessed resentment towards the governor into a full-throttled effort to recall eight GOP Senators, neither the enthusiasm nor organizational acumen exists on the Republican side of the aisle.
“It's clear that Democrats and liberal organizations are engaging in an attempt to make recall more than a mere hypothetical possibility for some Wisconsin Republicans,” said Liz Mair, Vice President of Hynes Communications and former RNC Online Communications Director, who has worked closely with officials on the ground in Wisconsin. “Even though Governor Walker acted to end the impasse, Republicans and conservatives should not be acting like this is done and dusted.”
The likely hood of this effort succeeding is not negligible, but nearly so. WIsconsin's rules for recall require signatures from 25% of the voters in the past election, and that those signatures be filed by May 2nd. The signatures must be validated and the petition deemed sufficient and insufficient. The the office-holder can challenge, so the thing just drags on and on, one way or another. If the petition succeeds, an election is called, which Democrats would have to actually win.
There is no political upside for Democrats in Wisconsin. Even in the extraordinary event that they would actually win a recall election, Republicans would still have a comfortable majority and no incentive to reverse themselves. The process is in fact just getting started, since many of the most egregious union rip-offs of the Wisconsin taxpayer are enscounced in concessions won through collective bargaining. Correctional officers, can in fact, call in sick for one shift, get paid for that shift, and then report for the shift immediately afterwards and collect overtime, getting paid 2-1/2 times their normal rate. They call it sick-leave stacking.
The real reason for the effort though has little to do with Wisconsin and everything to do with Michigan, Ohio and other states actively working on shaking off the parasites infecting state and local governments. They are demonstrating the price they intend to extract for defying their prerogatives.
Republican strategy in Wisconsin appears to be just right--let the unions cry-it-out, but keep an eye on the situation. If by some miracle, they do manage a successful petition--congratulate them on availing themselves of the proper constitutional means of protest, then spend big money insuring that the Republican candidate wins with a significantly larger margin than they did in 2008 (Those elected in 2011 are ineligible for recall).
The bottom line is, if the petition fails, the Republicans win. If the petition succeeds and the incumbent wins, the Republicans win. If the petition succeeds and the incumbent loses, it's at best, an anomaly.
