Sarah Palin appears to be smarter than her critics give her credit for.

Ms. Palin has agreed to appear in suburban Lakewood at a "Tribute to the Troops with Sarah Palin," a fundraiser for the families of fallen soldiers in suburban Denver. John Andrews, a former GOP gubernatorial nominee who heads the Centennial Institute, says Ms. Palin will not accept a fee and all proceeds from the event will go to family members who have lost breadwinners in combat.

The political significance of her acceptance lies in the fact that the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library is set to hold the first debate among presidential candidates on May 2, an event moderated by Brian Williams of NBC and John Harris of Politico.com. "Presumably, this means she will be doing [the fundraiser] instead of any other engagement on the second [of May]," Mr. Andrews told the Denver Post.

One cannot overestimate Sarah Palin's political advantages for a run at the nomination. She's a proven fund-raiser with an enthusiastic constituency among a certain kind of American conservative. By the same token, one cannot overestimate her liabilities. She practically defines what it means to be 'polarizing'. A succession of polls have shown her faring poorly against Barack Obama, even as her expected rivals project to win.

Apparently, Palin, 47, has taken stock and opted for discretion over valor. As a relatively young woman for politics, Palin has more than one shot at higher office, and the time would be well-used to enhance her resume and work on her public image.

In terms of the nomination race, her role could be very interesting. She is currently polling at 11 percent in Iowa, Huckabee, unsurprisingly, is leading, but by low single digits over Romney. The question arises--who are Palin voters and what do they think of the other candidates?

My perceptions are anecdotal, but consistent. Palin is very popular in Utah, as is Romney. I've not encountered anyone that liked Palin who didn't also like Romney. Palin is admired for her principles and dynamism. Romney is admired for his principles and talent. What Palin is not, is another Mike Huckabee--she is not a Jesus candidate, although Evangelicals can hardly object to the clarity she brings to issues like abortion. Her popularity derives from her authenticity and its problematic to calculate how voters motivated by that characteristic will choose an alternate candidate. My guess is that there is little overlap between a Huckabee and Palin voter. The 2008 nomination process made it very clear that Huckabee drew extremely narrowly from an Evangelical base, and it's a reasonable assumption that if you aren't for Huckabee in the first place, you never will be. That creates a very interesting scenario, where Palin's vote is up for grabs.

Huckabee leads Romney in Iowa, where he won back in 2008, but with Palin out, those votes could conceivably go to Romney in large enough numbers to make the state competitive.

Then of course there is the very real possibility that Huckabee won't run at all. There are few if any signs of a Huckabee ground team in Iowa, other than a 2 day book tour.

Additionally, he's not talking like a candidate, which is odd considering that he did well enough in 2008 to make himself one of the front runners in this cycle.

The reason may be that Huckabee wasn't particularly sophisticated about what it would take to become the President in the modern era. He's one of the few elected officials in the country who actually made more money if office than as a private citizen. As a Fox contributor and host, Huckabee is making more money now than at any other time in his life. Unlike some, I'm not suggesting that this is the reason he is demurring on a run, but it does suggest that he was uninformed about the financial cost of running for President. He's no longer naive on that point, and is wisely asking himself the question of whether he could financially survive a failed attempt the way say, Mitt Romney could.

What initially looked like a gang fight for the Republican nomination, may well end up with Romney, Gingrich and a gaggle of near-unknowns.