That's 'in play'. Many more have simply been abandoned to the Republican challenger.

POLITICO’s list of 99 seats — some of which have only recently emerged — places GOP pickup opportunities across the political map, stretching from regions of Republican strength such as the South to Democratic states such as California, where three incumbent Democrats face competitive challengers.

In deep-blue New York, Republicans have a shot at as many as nine Democrats. “It’s thermonuclear,” said two-term Rep. Michael Arcuri, in describing the campaign against him to The New York Times.

The list doesn’t include several Republican-oriented seats that Democrats have all but ceded to Republicans, including districts in southeastern Louisiana, Upstate New York and Middle Tennessee.

Many are calling it a perfect storm, but in reality, its was perfectly predictable, and I was only one among many who did predict as early as the stimulus package debate. Only seven percent of the stimulus package was marked for spending in year one, which obviated its alleged role as an economic stimulus. The nature of the legislation makes it clear that virtually no one believed the economy actually needed stimulus. It was merely a pretext for Democrats to reward their constituencies and guarantee a healthy flow of campaign funds well into the future.

Americans instinctively understood the proposition that no one can spend their way to prosperity, particularly on borrowed money.

The Obama-care debate further alienated the Independents, who looked aghast at the extra-constitutional methods Democrats were using to push through legislation that no one had read. While Progressives dismissed concerns, everyone else was various angry, shocked and/or deeply worried.

Ambiguity about taxes and the costs of Obama-care destroyed an essential component for investment--predictability. Large corporations and institutions could afford consultants to help them analyze the impact of Obama-care and plan accordingly, but for small business people, it remains a gigantic pig in a poke, creating severe anxiety at the prospect of hiring employees.

Three card Monte with unemployment statistics could not mask the reality of the situation down on the ground, particularly as short-sale signs popped up everywhere and people spoke in hushed tones about neighbors who had moved out after losing their homes.

Runaway spending, ignorance of basic principles of investing and an unwillingness to make the right call on the housing crisis which can be expected to continue for years as Democrats prolong the agony with ill-considered policies.

There is a lot Republicans can learn from this, but will they? The potential bumper crop of House seats and significant gains in the Senate might lead one to believe that the party is in good shape, but once again, appearances are deceiving. Most people apparently feel the way I do--wary of a party that sees its constituencies as a means to an end, rather than the people they are accountable to.

This is in effect, a last, or perhaps second-to-last chance for the party to redeem itself or face the fate of the Whigs (if you don't know who the Whigs are, you're making my point--they're long gone...). A third-party would seem inevitable if we have a repeat of the Bush years, which would mean Democrats regimes well into the future.

Republicans exist in a permanent state of tension between centrists and conservatives, particularly religious conservatives. They are not natural allies and it will take a considerable amount of skill to keep the coalition together. How to do it is obvious--keep the agenda narrowly focused on the things that everybody agrees on. Boehner seems to have grasped the essentials, judging by his performance over the last two years. He's well-suited to do battle with the administration over the next couple of years.

I'm cautiously hopeful.