Florida Governor Charlie Crist, having seen his chances for winning the Republican nomination evaporate with the ascendancy of Marc Rubio, has opted instead to run as an independent in the wake of some polls that suggested he might win if this were the case.
He apparently didn't consider that polls of this nature don't take into account the political Heisenberg principal--i.e. the act of actually running as an independent changes what was a theoretical exercise into one where the character of a life-long Republican office-holder is called into question by the obvious elevation of personal ambition over loyalty and the mythical principle of public service.
A number of Crist's own staffers have resigned in protest, and senior Republican officials have renounced their previous expressions of support.
So much self-inflicted damage in so little time.
Defection is a risky play under nearly any circumstances. Arlen Specter had a tough time with his previous reelection when he was merely a RINO. This time around, after switching parties, his chances are slim to none.
Joe Lieberman is a rare example of success. A target of the netroots crowd as a result of his support of the Iraq war, the perception was that Lieberman was being driven from office, a mere handful of years after he had been his party's standard bearer. The activist wing of the Democrat party did not have the sympathy of rank and file Democrats and moderate Republicans. Moreover, Lieberman's stance on the war was widely considered principled, even by those who disagreed with him. Defection had little to no stigma attached to it, in spite of the rhetorical excesses of the Kos kids.
Crist is no Joe Lieberman, and while his defection isn't at the same level of sliminess that Arlen Specter's was, its nevertheless pretty close.
The effect on the Florida Senate race will be interesting, but ultimately I would place my bets on Rubio, whose appeal is less about his conservative credentials than his personal magnetism. The irony is that Crist's status as an independent candidate appears to hurt the Democrat in the race more than it does the Republican.
Its been interested to see how the political landscape has changed over the past year or so, but with the Iraq war off the table, we seem to be left with two drivers--anger at Bush and anger at Obama. What many self-professed pundits seem to have missed is that among conservatives and independents, Bush and his policies were seen as insufficiently conservative. TARP, immigration and any number of issues are albatrosses hung around the necks of moderate Republicans like Crist, McCain and Sen Bob Bennett (R-UT).
Their only appeal is to Democrats disaffected by the hard turn to the left of the Democrat party--hence the prospects of Crist for sapping moderate Democrat votes in a state like Florida--left, but not too far left.
It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
