Michael Barone:
Holding Barack Obama’s Senate seat is starting to look like a Massachusetts-type perfect storm for Democrats. Mark Kirk with his suburban base, somewhat moderate voting record and military and foreign policy expertise, seems like an ideal candidate for Republicans, whose last successful Republican Senate candidate in Illinois, Charles Percy, had a similar profile. And as Chicagoan Tom Bevan notes on realclearpolitics.com, Democrats would have preferred the clean-cut former Inspector General David Hoffman as a nominee rather than the Rezko- and mob-connected Alexi Giannoulias; Hoffman’s rise in the polls just before the primary and his newspaper endorsements were, however, not quite enough to put him over the top.
Its by no means the end of the story, but Giannoulias is a gift to the Republicans in Illinois. The most interesting question though is whether Barack Obama will be gun-shy about campaigning for Giannoulias.
Obama's ability to pass his governing agenda depends entirely on the popularity of his governing agenda, which often gets confused--even by the man himself--with his personal popularity. Three straight losses in gimme contests have shattered the illusion that the public 'wants' Obamacare, run-away-train spending, or anything else this administration is offering. The emperor has no clothes.
The reaction has been stiff-armed denial and doubling-down, hoping that he can reestablish the distortion field. Putting what's left of his prestige on the line to help elect a damaged candidate has significant risks for his presidency. A number of metaphorical indians have already left the reservation, but the mid-terms threaten to make it sauve-qui-peut, giving effective control of the government to the Republicans who can pick off as many Democrats as they need to force the issue.
On the other hand, avoiding Illinois is almost as bad. Its his old Senate seat, and refusal to campaign for his successor is tantamount to a white flag--or is it?
Ironically, Obama's best option is to surreptitiously undermine Giannoulias--press leaks about dirty deeds done cheap, which all good Chicago politicians keep in secured files "just in case", could give the Obama administration plausible deniability, and the resulting hopelessness would provide an excuse not to 'waste time and resources' on a lost cause when so many other seats are in play.
I think this is what Democrats call "the third way..."
