BIOGRAPHY: Jeb is the second son of George H.W. Bush and his wife Barbara. Like older brother George, he attended Andover boarding school in Massachusetts and then the University of Texas at Austin. His academic performance was stellar, making honor rolls throughout his school years. While pursuing a degree in Latin American studies, Jeb (stands for John Ellis Bush) went to Leon, Mexico, in the state of Guanajuato where he met his wife Columba. They were married in 1974, the year after graduating. Jeb registered for the draft, but the Vietnam war ended before his number was called.

His work history begins with a banking career, started with the help of long-time George H.W. Bush wing-man, James Baker. He spent a couple of years in Venezuela, but quit to work on his father’s losing 1980 presidential campaign. After the election, the Jeb Bush family moved to Florida, where he worked in Real Estate for a Cuban émigré software millionaire, Armando Codino. Bush was instrumental in the firm’s success and the two men later formed another company as partners, and this became the foundation of Jeb Bush’s personal fortune. Jeb was also involved in a number of other diverse entrepreneurial ventures ranging from cell-phones to selling water pumps in Nigeria. Bush’s finances were disclosed when he became governor, and he had amassed a small fortune—a couple of million dollars. Unlike so many politicians, Bush’s fortune declined substantially while he was in office which suggests something important—Bush’s wealth was accumulated through personal, entrepreneurial activity rather than equity investments and kick backs from sources with an interest in his political career.

He converted to Catholicism early on in his marriage and is a 4th degree Knight of Columbus (John F. Kennedy was also a 4th degree Knight of Columbus. Edward Kennedy is known to have received the 3rd degree).

Jeb and Columba have three children, George, Noelle and John Ellis (Jebby) Jr. George, or George P. as he is referred to in an effort to prevent confusion with his famous uncle, graduated from Rice University and received his Juris Doctorate from the University of Texas (father Jeb’s alma mater…). He is married. Jeb Jr. works for a Miami real estate concern. The left’s smear machine made a big deal out of a drunk and disorderly arrest when Jeb Jr. was 18, but older sister Noelle provided the most fodder for her father’s political enemies, having been charged with prescription fraud and contempt of court for being in possession of cocaine while under court supervision. Its hard to find anything else out about her, except that she graduated from a Tallahassee community college in 2000.

POLITICS: Jeb Bush entered politics at the local level, becoming chairman of the Dade County Republican party. His role in Bob Martinez’s election as governor resulted in an appointment as Secretary of Commerce for the State of Florida. He served one year before quitting to help his father’s reelection campaign. The following year, he helped Ileana Ros-Lehtinen become the first Cuban-American elected to Congress. He ran for governor in 1994 and lost by less than 1% of the vote (to Lawton Chiles). In 1998, he ran again and won by a convincing margin over Buddy McKay. Jeb Bush was the first Republican governor to have ever served two full terms.

OPPOSITION RESEARCH: The left would hammer Jeb Bush on a number of minor fronts and one big one.

1. Silver spoon upbringing. There is little doubt that his father’s political connections provided him with opportunities that he might not have had otherwise. That is a fact. What mitigates the criticism is what Jeb Bush did with those opportunities. No one buys real estate from you because you’re famous. They might buy insurance, or investments, but not real estate. Bush was clearly a successful entrepreneur on his own hook, and that is something that still creates respect in this country. I rate this one as easily deflected.

2. Cuban criminal associations. I expect this one would be front page on the New York Times, but its been pretty much laid to rest as a dead end at this point. Bush at one point was charged with finding property for a Cuban émigré with a shady history in Cuba. After finding several suitable properties and having them all rejected for mysterious and trivial reasons, Bush’s boss paid him a $75,000.00 commission in spite of the fact that a sale was not made, but in recognition that this hadn’t been because Bush hadn’t done his job.

3. Noelle Bush. Her legal problems are supposed to make Evangelicals and other family values conservatives reject Jeb Bush as a bad father. I think they are much more likely to reject him for his Catholicism. Drug addiction is such a pervasive problem, crossing all classes and cultures, that its hard to believe that there is anyone left in the country who would take a self-righteous and naïve position on Jeb Bush’s suitability for office on that basis.

4. Policy positions. Typical stuff and all from the left’s perspective—Bush worked to get rid of affirmative action, executed murderers (although he did suspend executions in the state after a botched episode…), reformed education in ways the Teacher’s union didn’t approve of, etc, etc…

5. Bush-Gore vote count in Florida. There is little point in relitigating this process where the judgment of the outcome is so inextricably tied to partisan perspective. Did Jeb Bush insert himself into the process? I have little doubt that he conferred with the Bush campaign to map out strategy, but both the George W. Bush campaign, and the Jeb Bush governor’s office had enough political sense to recognize how important perception was going to be in the process. Obviously the partisans on the left were going to cry foul under any outcome that didn’t have Gore proclaimed as President-elect, but the Bush’s calculated their actions based on broader public perceptions, which led Jeb Bush to recuse himself from the process—at least publicly. This was all-out war, and both sides worked every possible angle they could within the bounds of legality and political prudence. The real question is whether Jeb Bush’s role in the Florida recount has any effect on his electability. In my view it does not. It may be used as a pretext for other objections more directly related to a theoretical political climate, but not useful in an of itself.

6. Terry Schiavo. I personally think it was a mistake to inject himself into this debate. Yes, there was political good will to be gained from social conservatives, but it didn’t come without a price as it concerned everyone else.

7. George W Bush’s brother and the third Bush to run for President in a 24 year period. Huge problem, at least at this point in the process, and I can’t really imagine it wouldn’t be a year from now either. Its’ not rational and it’s not fair, but the residual contempt for George W. Bush would be a gift to the Democrat rival and a serious handicap for Jeb Bush. I’d venture a guess that its worth 5 points to the Democrat in a general election.

CONCLUSION: Jeb Bush is one of the better and more polished products of the various political dynasties in this country. Politics would be his métier from youth onwards, and he has played his hand extraordinarily well. He has all the right positions, the right biography, pedigree and job experience. More importantly, Jeb has built serious trust with some very important and nontraditional constituencies—Hispanics and Jews. Were it not for his brother’s political dissolution, he’s be a clear front-runner for the 2012 Presidential nomination, awash in cash and endorsements. There are really only two questions at this point: Can Jeb Bush’s qualities as a candidate overcome the legacy of Darth Bush? It’s perhaps an imponderable, but I’m starting to wonder if things aren’t already turning around for George W. Bush in the public mind. Nothing like Democrats raising your taxes to make you pine for a Republican administration.

The other, perhaps more important consideration is where Jeb Bush leads his party and the country. His political curriculum vitae suggest his political instincts, character strengths, and perhaps weakness, are all very close to that of his brothers. What would worry me most, and require the most reassurance from Jeb Bush the candidate, would be his views on government spending, the market economy, free trade and all the other elements that are so clearly defining the difference between the right and the left these days. The problem as I see it, is that both Republicans and Democrats are politically motivated to embrace particular 20th century economic theories as they align themselves with their political philosophies. Democrat want to spend because they see that as buying political advantage, so they embrace Keynesian theory. Small government Republicans appreciate the laissez-faire elements of the Chicago school of economics. The storm is upon us, and we need less ideological conformity and more clear thinking. As it stands, I’d be worried about the implications of a Bush III presidency, which could fail to correct course and plunge the country deeper into the abyss.

Distillation? Let me preface it by providing some context. I believe we are on the precipice of the abyss, where the grand American experiment in democracy and freedom will sink beneath the waves of history. This country’s well-source of power has always been in economic vitality. History is littered with the corpses of overextended empires. After the collapse comes the power vacuum and then the dark age. This isn’t just about us, but very likely the future of the entire race. It took millennia for western civilization to restore itself to Roman levels, and that was a pre-industrial civilization. Would it even be possible to reconstitute a civilization on the brink of space flight and a ‘theory of everything’? A petroleum-based economy would almost certainly not be possible, since the shallow oil is all gone and the leap to deep-well extraction a virtual impossibility. What pretender to the throne of civilization waits in the wings? Does China truly understand or value human capital?

A little dark no doubt, but I don’t see the sense of shutting my eyes tight and wishing on a star. The possibilities are all too very real. In ordinary times, we might pick a President on a host of other issues. Not this time. This time there is only one issue.

Jeb Bush can almost certain win the Republican nomination. Florida is his for the asking. His odds of becoming President-elect are only a 50/50 proposition. That could change and he could become the 45th President of the U.S., but what kind of President would he be?

Here is where I get worried. Like his brother George, I think Jeb would be politically astute, statesmanlike and pragmatic. Yet even with all that going for him, I strongly suspect he would be out of his depth in an economic environment that clearly requires new thinking. We are currently polarized between two 20th century economic theories that don’t match up with the reality of a 21st century geography-free economy. Economic policy is based on affinity with political ideology—Democrats like Keynesian economics because it gives them a pretext to spend, spend, spend. Republicans like the Chicago school of neoclassical price theory, because it suits their libertarian instincts. What is needed is a President who can see the economy with new eyes and articulate a policy that fits our new environment. Jeb Bush would be great at reading the mood of the country, but the times require someone with the intellectual capacity to synthesize and articulate what may seem like radical economic policy—and sell it to the American people. Someone with the gravitas to elicit confidence and trust.

Can’t Jeb delegate? No—he can’t. Clearly the President is not going to personally draft economic policy, but he has to be able to distinguish between crap and pearls. There are going to be a lot of people doing Power Point presentations on what to do next, and when you don’t have the slightest clue, you might as well throw a dart to decide who is going to get the nod.

I'm not make a pronouncement here, I saying that this is how Jeb Bush would have be challenged during the nomination process. Its an ambiguity that needs clarification. How he answers should determine his fate.

Next in the series: Mike Huckabee.

MARK ADDs: I Wikipedia'd Jeb Bush, watched a few clips, looked at his positions and I'm impressed. I regard the Schiavo case as much to his credit, tho it's an easy story to distort. He has great electoral experience in the campaigns of others as well as 3 Governor races. His personality seems integrated, he's been around in business, he's strong with Hispanics, strong with women, got the executive experience, got the depths of character like his brother. What's not to like? Well, as Mick notes, he may not be the economic radical that America needs (who is?); he may get mired in the immigration issue, his name is Bush. My guess is that the name will not be a problem if he adopts credible conservative policies on the Federal budget instead of tacking to 'compassionate conservatism'. Who kept the USA safe? Bush. Who won in Iraq? Bush. Who cut taxes? Bush. Who appointed Roberts and Alito (eventually)? Bush. Who was gracious to Obama despite Obama's omni-whine about him? Bush. And so on. Voters may attribute the good things about W to Jeb. And he's likeable.

DAVE OPINES: I'll have to take the role of uninformed conservative voter concerning Jeb - but they do vote. My first impression reading Mick's piece was bummer last name, but on reflection, Jeb Bush wouldn't really be in play if he wasn't George's brother or the other George's son. I liked both the previous Bush's - the second better than the first. Despite my initial reaction that their name has been demonized, George II has already polled as well as Obama in the "who do you think is a better president?" surveys. One more year of Obama and we very well may see the "Miss me yet?" posters of George II plastered on every street corner - good for Jeb. As for the US economy, Mitt Romney will be stronger than Jeb, but what Democrat out there (read professional politician, no business experience) will have any credibility there?

One item that probably isn't on the minds of the electorate, but non-the-less is important, is the role of president as commander-in-chief and our relationship with other nation states. I'm not talking about terrorism and unconventional warfare - where the nation is currently focused. That must continue. I'm talking about the challenges posed chiefly by China (though India bears watching too). Traditional nation-state dynamics have not gone away - they've just been overshadowed. Are we like England at the turn of the twentieth century? How will the leaders we elect guide America here?