This is a short riff on Mick's fine summary of Sarah Palin's prospects a couple of posts ago. I agree with most of it, but let me point up where I differ:

1. Polls that show a heavy preponderance of opinion against her qualifications aren't worth the paper of the pollsters' contracts with the liberal clientele whom the polls are designed (literally designed) to please; it's too far out yet, yes she's still learning, simple polls in match-ups against Obama show her in the ball-park with Huckabee and Romney and she's far more experienced on the national stage now and is battle hardened. Above all she connects. I'll say it again: she connects.

2. Not only would Obama lose against Palin, I assert, but he'd lose against Levi Johnston. Almost the entire political spectrum gets it that Obama is not Presidential timber and, contra Mick, incumbency is a ball and chain right now not a booster rocket.

To put it another way, Obama is a dead parrot:

Owner: No, no.....No, 'e's stunned!
Mr. Praline: STUNNED?!?
Owner: Yeah! You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Norwegian Blues stun easily, major.
Mr. Praline: Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not 'alf an hour 
ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.
Owner: Well, he's...he's, ah...probably pining for the fjords.………
Mr. Praline: 'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e 
rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!

3. Mick doubts that Palin can "distinguish between a viable strategy and a half-baked idea". Well maybe, but she's been a successful sportswoman, businesswoman, mother, wife, mayor, governor, author and public speaker on the national stage. Also she's a real American and has American values that are both right and timely. She gets it and she connects. So that's a start.

Mostly I'm with Mick on all this, but the relevant comparison isn't with Obama, it's with Romney. As I said before, my heart says Palin, my head says Romney/Palin. I really like Romney and Scott Brown's endorsement of Romney at CPAC yesterday is beyond price. Romney's speech was pretty good too. But America is at a crossroads and history is moving very fast now. It may yet be that Palin is the transformative leader for the time, tho Romney be more competent, more "qualified".

On Mark On Mick On Palin:

I'm not as quick as Mark is to dismiss the polls on Palin's approval/disapproval ratings. I've had enough anecdotal evidence to help me believe that they are largely accurate. The real question isn't whether the poll is accurate, but whether the perception is accurate. Mitt Romney is a case in point. As many know, Romney was accosted on an outbound flight from Vancouver. His behavior is described as entirely appropriate from beginning to end. Those who know Romney--like the thousands who had personal contact with when he headed up SLOC in the late 90s, are not in the least bit surprised by this. Everyone I know who knew him, always described him as an extremely thoughtful and considerate man--a true gentleman. Nevertheless, his political enemies have succeeded in creating an alternate bizarro Romney characterization in the public mind, but as time passes, Romney true character is displacing the caricature. John Edwards experienced the same process--his private character eventually became his public character.

Sarah Palin is going through the exact same process, but rather than finding out that the public perception was incorrect, Americans appear to be confirming their initial perceptions--nice lady, admirable lady, pretty lady, you betcha. Genius? Not so much. Let's wait another year and see if that changes.

As for Obama's reelection prospects--Romney wisely pointed out that the economy will in fact recover, and it won't have much to do with Mr. Obama, who turned an ordinary recession into a Great one. The point is well-taken--things will change between now and November 2012. A cardinal rule of sales and politics is that fear is a better motivator than profit. McCain, as bad a candidate as he was, was still doing pretty well until the bottom fell out of banking. In the ensuing tumult, Obama appeared to be the better bet for a return to stability. McCain sank without a trace.

With this in mind, consider two scenarios--Palin v. Obama is a period of relative stability and Palin v. Obama in a period of tumult and crisis. Presidents always benefit from stability--people prefer the devil they know. If there had been no Iranian hostage crisis, Carter would have won a second term. In a crisis, its really up to the challenger to exude superior leadership qualities. Reagan exuded leadership but the rarely mentioned fact of his landslide victory over Carter was that he won a bare plurality of the popular vote--50.7%

Palin is no Reagan, who in additional to his remarkable charm and confidence, was a guy who knew his stuff. Its just my opinion of course, but Mark's comments suggested that I needed to clarify my thought process somewhat better than I initially did.

On Mark's final point--yes, Palin "gets it", and while that is a major asset to any politician in an election campaign, its half-a-loaf when it comes to governance. 'Getting it' means that you know how to sell your agenda to the public, but first you have to formulate the right policies. Obama famously contrasted McCain's experience with his superior judgment, fooling a good many Americans who don't know that you can't have one without the other. Palin is simply no combat veteran when it comes to problem-solving. Give me the old, battle-scarred sergeant to lead me into battle every time.

Love ya Mark. You are more fun that a barrel of monkeys.

DAVE'S COMMENTS: I'm with Mick on Palin's chances against Obama in 2012 - it isn't 2010. Just like 2010 isn't 2008. If Republicans make great gains this year, they may have enough time to screw things up for 2012 (or at least be painted that way).

When Palin was nominated VP, I didn't think she was qualified/experienced to be President. That was the beauty of her selection - if she wasn't qualified, what did that say about Obama? Ironically, the more conservatives got to know her the better we thought she would be than McCain - what's that say about our political process?

But Mark points out the proper comparison. Palin vs. Romney. As long as there is an extremely competent executive option, such as Romney, I'll choose that first.

Mark on Dave on Mick on Mark on Mick on Palin:

I just needed to write that. That is all!