Its nearly inconceivable that Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat would go to a Republican in overwhelming Democrat-dominated Massachusetts (21 out of 200 seats in the MA Assembly are Republican...), but some well-informed people are starting to think that it might just happen.

Democratic desperation and other compelling evidence strongly suggest that Democrats may well lose the late Senator Edward Kennedy’s Senate seat in Tuesday’s special election. Because of this, we are moving our rating of the race from Narrow Advantage for the Incumbent Party to Toss-Up.

I think that's right.

Its true that there are three times as many registered Democrats as Republicans, but registered voters make up only half of the electorate in the Commonwealth. That would seem to be an overwhelming advantage, but its not about who's registered, but who turns up to vote on Monday.

Without boring you with the details, its pretty clear that the energy is with the nays on healthcare and Obama's handling of the economy. Pissed-off people vote, and its hardly a single issue kind of pissed-off.

Add to this a terrible candidate running an awful campaign. Martha Coakley is a thoroughly disagreeable woman--so much so that the State Police, whom she oversees, endorsed her rival! She's made no attempt to build rapport with the voters, and has in fact gone out of her way to alienate them with reporter beat-downs and comments like this.

Coakley bristles at the suggestion that, with so little time left, in an election with such high stakes, she is being too passive.

“As opposed to standing outside Fenway Park? In the cold? Shaking hands?’’ she fires back, in an apparent reference to a Brown online video of him doing just that. “This is a special election. And I know that I have the support of Kim Driscoll. And I now know the members of the [Salem] School Committee, who know far more people than I could ever meet.’’

But this next quote, from the same article underscores the nature of the problem...

“Massachusetts needs Martha Coakley to be the next senator!’’ she says, her voice rising. “There is no way in hell Massachusetts is going to send a Republican to Washington!’’

The 10 people in the room holler, cheer, and applaud. They believe her.

As I said before--this is virtually a no-lose proposition for Republicans, who don't have to win to win. A close race makes for a lot of wet pants.