[For our non-wonk readers, the 'Generic Ballot' refers to a theoretical matchup between an unnamed Republican and an unnamed Democrat. Its a measure of public trust in the parties rather than individual candidates]
While the media is characterizing tonight's State of the Union address as an opportunity for Obama to 'reconnect with the voters', that is largely media spin, to be followed in the next couple of days with the 'shocking news' that Obama didn't make much of impression. The reality is that Obama's problems stem not from a lack of rhetoric, but a lack of action and thus progress on the issues that matter to the public most.
The Democrat political culture is that intentions matter more than outcomes, while Republican culture values outcomes. George H.W. Bush is a case in point. No one cared that that his lips were saying 'no new taxes', when the reality was that he raised taxes. On the other hand, Bill Clinton intended to integrate homosexuals into the military, reneged on his promise, and Democrats have never paid a price among their GLBT constituency. Gays and lesbians will continue to vote Democrat and contribute to campaigns on the basis of 'good intentions'.
Of course, when it comes to personal economic repercussions, everyone's a Republican and Obama's preference for the political upside of Obamacare over the personal fortunes of Americans has had its effect.
The poll holds plenty of danger signs for the Democrats. In one indicator studied closely by both parties ahead of midterm elections, likely voters chose an unnamed Republican candidate by 5 percentage points over the Democrat on a hypothetical congressional ballot.And, Bolger points out, that edge is more pronounced among people whose interest in the midterms is high.
"So while it's a 5-point lead overall, among the most interested voters, that lead doubles," Bolger says. "And we saw that take effect in Virginia; we saw it took effect in [the] New Jersey gubernatorial race; and we saw it take effect in the Massachusetts Senate race as well."
Ironically, the NPR poll agrees with oft-maligned Rasmussen generic ballot poll, which has consistently under-run other national polls by five points. Rasmussen, like the NPR poll, was survey likely voters, while other polling outfits like Gallup, simply polled the general population---gee, I wonder why they did that?
Obama's SOTU, no matter how well-crafted and delivered is unlikely to move the needle for two reasons;
1. Few Americans actually watch these things in the first place, so it's really the media's reaction to it that matters. If they like it, they'll report on it in flattering terms, if not, they'll simply accelerate the downward spiral with damnation by faint praise or outright cynicism. My sense is that the liberal media will take a cautious approach. They are vested in Obama's success, but they are unwilling to accompany him on his voyage down the political river Styx. This is why Obama is totally screwed, because the media will not be leading out on this--they'll be reacting to the direction of the 'herd', rather than commit to a position and risk getting trampled.
2. The 'herd' has largely made up its mind at this point. Rasmussen has Obama's disapproval rating at 53%, but more importantly, 42% strong disapprove. That leaves only 11% to work with, and they won't hear much of what Obama has to say (see number one...). Obama should consider the SOTU a tremendous success if he changes the poll numbers by one point. Unfortunately, disapproval is increasing by a point a month, so all he'll be able to do is buy thirty days relief.
The large problem is that Obama has passed a tipping point. In 2007, lots of people voted for Obama because it was socially advantageous--otherwise known as 'cool', to do so. As anecdotal evidence during the Massachusetts Senate race showed, a lot of Democrats don't want to be in a position to have to defend their political allegiance. I haven't heard much on Obama from the usual suspects in Hollywood, which is a pretty good indicator of what's fashionable in politics--and what isn't.
