Michael Barone analyzes the Rasmussen poll numbers on the Indiana Senate race and there is no joy for incumbent Evan Bayh.

These are astounding numbers. A general rule in polling is that what an incumbent gets in a poll he gets in a general election. Everyone knows him; those not voting for him now are not likely to vote for him later. This is particularly the case with Evan Bayh, who was elected secretary of state of Indiana in 1986 at age 30, then was elected governor of Indiana in 1988 and 1992 (and saw a Democrat hold the governorship in 1996) and who was elected senator from Indiana in 1998 (when incumbent Dan Coats retired rather than face Bayh) and 2004. Bayh has to be universally known in Indiana, and over the years he has built a reputation as a moderate Democrat, which has helped him win in a state which voted Republican in every presidential election from 1968 to 2004 and which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by the narrow margin of 50%-49%.

Bayh's poll numbers?

44% vs any Republican challenger. He loses outright against Indiana congressman Mike Pence, and wins narrowly against less well-known rivals, who of course, would only get better known and thus more popular in a campaign.

Its a good bet that Bayh will lose, reducing the previous estimate of 52 seats for the Democrats, to 51. Barone thinks there are at least two more Democrats who are vulnerable which would give the Republicans control of the Senate.

Obama is nearly out-of-his-mind angry now. Can you imagine how he'll feel if he loses the Congress?