On the off chance that there are a still a few people reading this neglected blog, I find myself compelled to comment on the surprising events of the weekend.

I haven't known what to expect from Sarah Palin, but I certainly didn't expect this. Less than two years into her mandate, she resigns as governor of Alaska, for no apparently rational reason that I or anyone else can make sense of.

The Democrats, in spite of their dismissive rhetoric, are scared to death of Sarah Palin--she's a nightmare scenario promising to hoist them on their own petard--a populist candidate who appeals to the part of the country that didn't go to an Ivy League school, but does go to church every Sunday (and sometimes more often...). One can hardly blame them for trying to nibble her to death with an unrelenting succession of mini-scandals.

The strategic question--if there is one, is whether Palin is essentially throwing a wrench into the Democrat's smear machinery, or surrendering to it. So let's look at propositions and the facts that support them.

1. Palin's a Genius. There is no further political benefit to Sarah Palin's Alaskan governorship. She transcended the political benefits of the office when she ran as McCain's running mate. The media is never going to cover her as a "good governor", preferring to focus on why the windows in her house are made by the same company that made the windows for the Wasilla civic center. By leaving now, she gives herself three years to win the nomination and go head to head with Obama in 2012. Her PAC is well-funded and her polls suggests she has huge favorables among people who go to church but didn't attend an Ivy League school.

The argument has always been that Palin needs more "seasoning", or in other words, she needs to build her appeal with the swells. Don't hold you breath waiting for that to happen. Palin has taken a page from Obama's book and decided to strike while the iron is hot. Considering how easily Obama fooled the American people into thinking he was a moderate, she seems well-supported in that view.

2. Palin's an Idiot. Palin's resignation was an emotional reaction to pressure, and demonstrate her unsuitability for higher office. Her resignation speech certainly gives legs to this version. By giving up the governship, she casts away her best chance of establishing executive bona fides with the electorate. She's young and should bide her time, accumulating credibility the way Hillary Clinton has.

The truth is probably a little of both--Palin's speech was uneven, but so are most of her speeches. It might embarrass Katy Couric, but her base loves her for her plain-spokenness. Harry Truman, much admired now, but much maligned in his time, talked of turnip harvesting in one of his speeches, reminding real Americans that he was one of them and not some ass from Manhattan.

I think Palin was probably right to dump the governorship--you can't run a presidential campaign from Anchorage, and there is no more to be gained from the office for her personally. Whether a Palin candidacy is a good thing or not is a completely different matter.

Palin appeal is based on her class, and while its possible to win the presidency on that basis, you can't have an enduring conservative political legacy using that strategy. I hate to characterize the current political and economic crisis as an "opportunity", but that's what it is--a chance for the current generation of voters to observe first hand the devastating effects of socialism. The next Republican candidate has a chance to set the country on a path to prosperity and economic justice for a generation.

...but not if its Sarah Palin.