UPDATE: Walter Shapiro from the liberal New Republic:
Through most of his inaugural primetime press conference, Barack Obama seemed like he was channeling a particularly loquacious combination of Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, and the ghost of Hubert Humphrey. The president's response to the first question from the Associated Press about the risks of sounding too apocalyptic about the economy ran (or, to be more accurate, crawled) for nearly 1,200 words--and ended with Obama saying "Okay" with an implicit question mark as if he were requesting permission to keep on talking. A national poll from the Pew Research Center released Monday afternoon found that 92 percent of Americans described Obama as a "good communicator." There is a suspicion that those astronomic numbers had dipped by the time that Obama exited from the East Room of the White House at 9 p.m. on the dot.
I had a long discussion with a former neighbor yesterday who insisted that the media will carry Obama on its shoulders to reelection. Well, you know me--I disagree, even vehemently. Shapiro's ambivalence is my currency.
Journalists, and to a large degree bloggers as well, write to impress each other more than their audience. For journalists though, its a matter of professional survival. If the readers and your colleagues think you are a brilliant writer, you have job security. If just your colleagues think you are a brilliant writer, you still have job security. If the readers like you, but you're colleagues think you are a moron, maybe that bank teller job on Monster.com would be a good option. Yesterday I pointed out that Ann Coulter doesn't get a column inch in major newspaper syndication, and she won't until hell freezes over and her views become the mainstream. On the other hand, nobody reads Kathleen Parker, but she's got a steady gig. Ya got to go along to get along.
In spite of this, contrarianism is a proven winner among journalistic styles. Former Salon editor Michael Kinsley has made a career out it. The tension between the perceived "originality" of the contrarian perspective and den scent of the journalistic community is a fine line that no one wants to cross. Parker, Frum and Noonan illustrate this dynamic quite well.
All were aghast at Sarah Palin's candidancy, but while that pleased their colleagues, it alienated the conservative audience for their writing. They're problem is that their colleagues don't consider them brilliant, but socially acceptable token conservatives, who now have no credibility with conservatives. I'd say they should take Bill Kristol out to lunch and mine his insights. What they have going for them is that their liberal-left bosses have no idea what conservatives are thinking, so maybe they won't notice.
Its tougher for a liberal-left journalist. Everybody will notice when you step over the line because your colleagues and your audience are pretty much indistinguishable.
With that in mind, how much trouble is Shapiro in?
Not much, because he's not over the line. He's found the contrarian sweet spot for liberal-left journalists--an occasion where his colleagues are all thinking the same thing, but lack the courage to go first. Opportunity knocks for Walt. This is nose-on-your-face stuff, as most of Obama's stumbles have been. The first couple you can forgive--after that you're Gerald Ford tripping over your own shoelaces. The bottom line is that he's one of the first out of the gate.
Now it gets interesting, because the other journalists will want to be cool too, so look for a geometric progression of descended testicles as everybody scrambles to be "aware" of Obama's shortcomings. Pretty soon, they'll all be working to out-do each other and the frank observations will become increasingly caustic criticisms.
Joe Biden went from gray eminence to court jester in five months--and he's well-liked! Biden has none of the haughtiness that Obama just exudes. My guess is that he's not going to wear on people very well, and we already had indications of that when he was in Chicago.
When it comes to liberal political attitudes, the mainstream media is the canary in the coal-mine; an early indicator of blue state attitudes. I suspect Obama's approval rating dropped under 60% for journalists last night, and we'll see the Rasmussen polls follow suit in a couple of months as it all percolates through the subculture.
