Cassandra Weighs In...
If Pat Caddell didn't invent modern polling, he was certainly one of the very early architects. He advised five Democrat presidential candidates, including one for current Vice-President Joe Biden. He was a figure of considerable influence in the ill-fated Carter White House, which makes his comments about Obama's political prospects, and those of the Democrat party in particular, of particular interest.
Some of his critics have accused him of being a crypto-Republican, but Caddell is still very much a creature of the left, supporting Ralph Nader in word, deed and with cash. He's just extremely candid and self-assured about his political principles.
“President Obama’s undoing may be his disingenuousness,” Caddell says. After campaigning for post-partisanship, Obama, he observes, has lurched without pause to the left. “You can’t get this far from what you promised,” Caddell says, “especially when people invest in hope — you must understand that obligation. The killer in American politics is disappointment. When you are elected on expectations, and you fail to meet them, your decline steepens.”
Caddell, as a first hand observer of Jimmy Carter's political dissolution, is perhaps positioned better than any other political observer to understand the scope of Obama's failure, and the implications for Democrat political fortunes. He doesn't disappoint.
“We may be at a pre-revolutionary moment,” he says, unsmiling. “Everything is in motion.” This November, he predicts, “will be more of a national referendum than any [midterm election] since Watergate.”The polling data show how restless the country is. “A Rasmussen poll from earlier this year showed just 21 percent of voters believing that the federal government enjoys the consent of the governed — an astounding figure,” Caddell says. “Then a CNN poll showed that 56 percent of Americans worried that the federal government poses a direct threat to their freedom.”
“Democrats are aware of this,” Caddell continues. “They know that the general outcome is baked.” As the fall campaign kicks into gear, “the question now becomes whether Obama can mitigate their losses. You see them trying to localize their campaigns and pretending that they don’t know Nancy Pelosi. It’s all rather amusing.”
Unlike President Reagan at his first-term midpoint, in 1982, “Obama is not able to go out there and say, ‘Stay the course.’ That’s just not possible. The Democrats’ hope with health care was that ‘people will like it after we pass it.’ Well, they hate it, and you don’t see any effort to promote it. The Democrats had a chance to do this right — most people supported aspects of reform — but because of the way it was passed, as a crime against democracy, the country has simply not accepted it. The lies, the browbeating, the ‘deem and pass’ — all of it was a suicide mission.”
At this point, prediction of an electorate rout in a couple of months is low-hanging fruit. The real value of what Caddell is saying is the lesson for Republicans. He points out that in spite of the unprecedented 10 point generic poll lead (Rasmussen), "no one likes the Republicans much either..." That's undoubtedly true...I don't like the Republican much myself.
A victory in November while certainly useful, won't bring sustained benefit to either the party or the country unless Republicans understand that job one will be to restore national confidence in its governing institutions. Failing that, Democrats wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a repeat of 2008 at some point in the future.


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